“I’m coming to your house if TSHTF” and varations got me thinking

We have either heard or read folks that seem to think they can just show up on your doorstep and they will just walk in to home and you will take care of them. Some others think they can turn renegade/criminal  and just walk in and take your stuff  you have prepared.  I have very little sympathy or tolerance in either mindset as they both miss the point that by being prepared you are not dependent on others be it the Government, Friends and family or potential victims.

I do some prepping for friends and family, heck I even have some “charity buckets” that I can give out to help someone move on down the road. I do this because of my beliefs and I’m trying to help out my Mom with the other family members.  My neighbors joked about coming to my house when the wood stove was installed to stay warm. They are folks I would welcome with open arms as they have helped out with my yard work, given me produce from their garden. Even my trike I got from them for free because of the volunteer work they do in the community. I have got a lot of help from them because they are young and strong and just “good people”.  I have no problem helping these kind of people out.

For the moochers, I have no time for because I have proven in less than five years even on limited income you can not only prepare but thrive.  It takes some work to pay down debt, to not go out to bars, cafes and give up things that save time.  You will have to take time to learn new skills and practice them. You will probably looked at as a cheapskate or at least a little odd by people and yes they will talk about you!  You won’t have the latest and greatest stuff while you do that hard work of paying down debt and building up you provisions and skill sets. I know for me it seemed like it was taking forever the first two years, then some things became habits on saving money. I got excited about paying off a debt and instead of going out to celebrate I plowed that money into paying off other debts or food/equipment for my preps. How do you think I came up with my original $100.00-$125.00 shopping list. I got it $20.00 at a time starting cooking from scratch and as I used those bulk foods to learn and eat I would add more to my preps. Making up a bunch of bread or beans and rice is simple. Learning to make it tasty takes practice and cook books/internet.

One of my pet peeves is most prepping sites only recommend buying whole grains. If you can’t afford to buy a good grinder that’s dumb and if you are not used to eating whole grains it can effect your body badly making you feel quite ill. Buy 50 pounds of unbleached flour and start making your bread to save money. Once you can afford a grinder then you can look at slowly adding things like whole wheat to your diet slowly and mixing your flour 1/2 and 1/2 with whole wheat as your body gets used to it.  White flour will last about 5 years if stored in cool dry place so you will have plenty of time to use it up by making bread and stuff then rotating it.

Now for you criminal wannabes who think you can simply take what ever you want from those who prepare. I’d like to enlighten you on a few facts about preppers and survivalist.

  1. Most preppers and survivalist are not pacifists. Most of them have several weapons and consider 1000 rounds of ammo per weapon a good start.
  2. Most have upgraded their doors and windows and have local alarms, lights and other defensive measures installed or can be installed quickly in a SHTF scenario.
  3. Many have set up neighborhood watch groups or live in rural areas where strangers are noticed quickly and are encouraged to move along.
  4. Most practice self defense skills quite regularly and pay for classes to become more proficient at dealing out violence.
  5. While you might be a vet so are many of us.  For what you spend on your tacticool crap and the latest camo (which makes as camouflaged as a school bus) You could probably buy your own basics if you weren’t so obviously lazy.
  6. Let us assume that all your great secret squirrel, ninja tactics work and you take over my home and my preps. You are going to do what with them?  While I do have canned goods most of my preps are in long term food that needs to cooked from scratch.   At best you might be able to carry away about 3-7 days of food.  Lack of clean drinking water will probably kill you in a couple of weeks before you can ever stage an attack.
  7. Let’s just take a look at the quality of people that will join you in your little criminal escapade and just how comfortable with them not to shoot you in the back to take from you what you need to live.  I mean you have all agreed that murder, rape and pillage are quite acceptable in order to live. Good people to have watch you back.  /sarcasm
  8. Now let’s look at the logistics and your so called supply train for your merry bunch. Heck I will even give you a vehicle or two to support your bunch of 5-10 criminals. Now you will need at a min. 10 gallons a day of water though 30 -50 gallons is more realistic, so that’s about 400 pounds of water you will need daily just to cook and maintain a min. level of hygiene. You will need about 2 pounds of food per person per day just to maintain basic health and closer to 3-4 pounds because attacking people in good defensive positions is physical work and takes quite few calories.  So you need about 20-50 pounds of food daily. Now you could stage a raid against a prepper or survivalist and take some casualties. Or watch a place for a week and maybe get lucky and catch someone unaware.
  9. So if you are somewhat lucky, you will need to carry off over 2 tons of water and about 700 pounds of food just to pay off for that one raid. You better hope that prepper had a bit more than a few months on hand to deal with local disasters to justify your investment of time, energy and risk.
  10. That’s only trying to pull off a raid twice a month and does not consider fuel for heat, transportation, the weight of ammo, clothes or anything else your group will need. People need water, food, basic shelter, sanitation and security everyday.
  11. Oh I suppose you and your guys could take over a home for a few days to month until everything runs out. Guess what you just became a target to other raiders.

It’s dumb to think that you can raid homes and folks like preppers or survivalists when it is easy and fairly cheap to build your own supplies up. Most preppers might have 3-6 months worth of supplies for a family of four and a couple of those members are small children that are not food intensive.  Depending on the population you may not have a lot of time to loot and run back to your camp. Exactly how long do you think you may last before you run out of preppers to pillage? Three months,  six months at best as those preppers will be eating and using all those supplies while you get your little raids together. Even if you become good at raiding you will eventually run out of victims and then what?

7 Responses to “I’m coming to your house if TSHTF” and varations got me thinking

  1. Spud says:

    I might think that the vast majority will become raiders once the food runs out. Even a prepper will resort to this once his belly is empty. The difference is that the prepper will be the last one to get that hungry feeling, long after the masses have died out.

    Are you sure my niece “Megan” isn’t one of your nieghbors lol ?

  2. Jamie says:

    Spud, Scavenging and raiding are two different things in my mind. I fear many people will die do to a lack of clean water, good food and poor sanitation/basic first aid or health care. I have no problem with scavenging or even using dead peoples land for gardening or set up an out house and small dump. I have a major problem with people who think they can turn raider because they are to lazy to prepare today.

    I hope that in a long term emergency that preppers can shift to a more self-reliant way of life but that is probaly unrealistic as many preppers seem to think a bit of freeze dried food, a water filter, a generator and a gun is a get out of “Armageddon Free” card. Oh sure it helps to have those things on hand and they are great for small reagoinal disasters or personal disaster like losing a job, getting sick or having a big unexepected bill.

    I think if we do have a world wide economic collapse we are looking at very rough times for 3-7 years. Having a bucket of freeze dried food, some gold/silver, a generator will not keep you alive for very long.
    Having skills, tools, things on hand you can’t make or have substutes along with an adaptable mindset will make a huge difference on your odds for survival. No guaruntees are given.

    I doubt many of the people that think they will turn raider have sat down and looked at the huge logistic issue that being a raider entails. They could simply kill everyone on a house the want to hit for a day and hope the have a few supplies. Perhaps even live for a day or two and move on to the next place and repeat. At best they can only hit easy targets and in about two weeks all of the food will be gone from the easy hits. Preppers and survivalists homes will be a lot harder targets and raiders can’t afford a siege because they are the ones without food and basics for survival. A simple seige of three days would starve out the raiders faster than it would most preppers. The raiders would not have water, food and would be expose to the elements while a prepper would be some what safe and physically well supplied.

    No, a raider would have attack quickly and carry off as much as they could in about a 24 hour period and even using vehicles they may get enough to last about 3-7 days for all that physical work and risk it’s just not feasible as a long term prepping strategy.

    It doesn’t mean people won’t try turning raider. It just means in about two months at best they will be dead. Anyone who thinks turning raider is just dumb and would be better off being a prepper.
    Take that money you spend on all that tacticool stuff and buy seeds and learn to garden. Add a rain barrel and buy up some rice, beans and flour. Learn to make food from scratch!

    For what you spend for an Assault rifle, ammo and gadgets let’s say about two grand. You could easily buy the basics you need to live for a year or more. You could warm, under shelter not on the run and hunted or target for preppers and whatever passes for the law.

  3. That’s pretty well thought out. I can’t say I find much to add and I’ve been at this for thirty years. I actually have a relative who doesn’t do any preparedness planning at all because his intent is to simply loot what he needs from other people. He lives in Oregon, where there are ample numbers of those strange people who lay in large quantities of supplies but envision an emergency as a situation where everyone plays nice and we all beat our flower drums and share. It always amazes me how little Americans understand of human behavior under duress. I think one reason that most Americans have no idea of the seamy side of human nature is that they’ve never been outside the country to see it on a large scale.

    • Jamie says:

      Harry, As you can see a person can’t hope to loot enough, to maintain survival. A raider would have to work very hard just to steal from other people. There just aren’t enough well prepared victims available.

  4. The old saying, “there is always someone who is tougher than you”, rings true here. Even if a group succeeds once (or even twice), sooner or later someone is going to take them out. I know how it use to be here when the Indians would raid a homestead. Men would saddle up, catch their trail, and chase them 100 miles (or until they caught them) if that’s what it took. I know of one such raid that took place near Carrollton, TX. They ended up catching the peckerwoods (perps) somewhere around where Mountain Creek Lake is today. About 30 miles away. Then it was all over for them. No mercy. I would imagine it will be just like that again. Indians knew they’d better hook ass, and normally that didn’t even help them. The people you are describing are not nearly as smart. Look for them to hang around the area, to celebrate their conquest or split up the loot.

    People should just look at history. Why would we do any different today? Especially when it worked? People act like we’ll be all alone, and to a certain extent, we will (during the bump) be. But we will not be as nearly alone as most think. Not when our common survival is at stake. The best defense is a good offense. Or severe consequences. We will have chase squads set up, and trained, just for this purpose. Whether the raiders are successful or not. Other measures are also in the pipeline. The key is being able to ‘bump them’, off of you when they show up. But that’s where our preps will, hopefully, come into play.

    Gardens are great ambush sites.

    • Jamie says:

      Most criminals are somewhat stupid. Sure they may be willing to commit some mayhem quicker than the average person, but they never seem to realize they need a fairly stable and economically growing society to prey upon. A few of the people I have read that say they will turn raider don’t strike me as intellectual giants. You need about a 3 to 1 advantage to attack a defensive position. Even rangers prefer to concentrate and attack with a 3 to 1 ratio and hit smaller targets with overwhelming force and basically defeat an enemy in detail. Rangers tend to hit weak points behind enemy lines to disrupt the enemy and make them react.
      For the plains Indians raiding was a way of life. It was a way to grab some goodies, but they still hunted, gathered and perhaps grew a few crops. They had a fairly stable base economy with the tribe.
      Look at Harry’s relative that thinks he can survive as a raider. This raider wannabe makes a few assumptions that are not valid. The biggest one is that he alone can turn raider. In that scenario he must hope he can get the drop on some prepper or survivalist because he is at huge disadvantage attack a defended position. Number two, he better hope that there is something of value to carry off along with just basic food and water and all the ammo he just expended to attack.
      Number three just how much can he loot and carry away in less than 24 hours. at best about 3-7 days worth of food and water. Maybe grab a couple of blankets or a tent if he is lucky and a day or two he has to do another raid and hope they have something worth stealing. It’s just won’t work on a cost benefit scenario even with out the risk assessment of people trying to make big nasty hole in your body.
      At best about one in ten folks in the USA are preppers and most of those only have a couple of weeks maybe 3 months of food. Not a lot of potential victims for most raiders after a couple of weeks.

      • All of your points are valid. I mentioned gardens only because even most of the Indian raids could have been prevented if the settlers hadn’t forgotten their rifles when they went out. They just got lazy and caught without them. Call it bad luck, or whatever, but the indians probably wouldn’t have even hit them had they been armed. BTW, Indian raids were not what most have been told. Yeah, they happened. Yeah, they were bad. But they were not what you probably think. One of the biggest ones in Texas took place outside (North) of Jacksonville. There is a monument there today. http://texasescapes.com/Ghosts/Killough-Massacre.htm

        But then, the Indians back then weren’t as stupid as most people are today. Ask your ‘friend’ 🙂 how he’s gonna like having a great big sucking chest wound when he departs us.

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